Executive Summary

Development Pipeline

Industrial Projects

> Additional projects are included in the Appendix below.

Entitlement Risk

Approval Patterns

• Revenue Alignment: The city prioritizes projects that utilize existing vacant commercial footprints, recently approving a 24/7 fitness center to fill the former Safeway site .
• Contractual Pragmatism: Council consistently supports long-term service extensions, such as the 5-year fire IGA with a 7.3% annual escalator, to provide stability during regionalization studies .

Denial Patterns

• "Blank Check" Resistance: Council has shown a willingness to defer or oppose regional plans that include unwanted elements like speed cameras or the replacement of historic structures without deep justification .
• Parking Inadequacy: Projects that fail to address peak-hour congestion or drive-thru trapping, particularly near Glenn Otto Park, face significant staff and council scrutiny .

Zoning Risk

• Holly Street "Gateway Overlay": Proposed design standards for the Holly Street corridor may allow heights up to 55 feet via "height bonuses," though commissioners remain concerned about "tunnel" effects and view obstructions .
• Town Center Cleanup: The city is active in "mapping cleanup" exercises to align the comprehensive plan with the 2040 Town Center Plan, which recently involved removing parcels owned by McMenamins and the animal hospital from the overlay .

Political Risk

• Home Rule Erosion: Local officials express extreme frustration over state mandates (SB 974, HB 2001) that limit local design standards for projects over 20 units and remove public hearing requirements .
• Fiscal Instability: The city is facing a projected "black diamond" decline in fund balances due to public safety costs, making new revenue-generating developments politically essential but highly scrutinized for their impact on service levels .

Community Risk

• Preservation vs. Density: Organized community members are vocal against high-rise developments (5+ stories) in the confluence area, citing concerns over the loss of "small-town feel" and views .
• Infrastructure Backlash: Residents have organized against Multnomah County’s perceived lack of maintenance for bike lanes and medians, leading to local resistance against new county-led road projects .

Procedural Risk

• Type 3 to Type 2 Conversions: State law is forcing the city to shift several application types from public hearings to staff-level decisions, which limits public notice to a 100-foot radius and restricts local appeal options .
• ODOT/County Bottlenecks: Large infrastructure projects, like the Stark Street Bridge replacement, face delays as the city demands more rigorous justification from the county before providing support .

Key Stakeholders

Council Voting Patterns

• Historic/Scenic Protectors: Mayor Ripma and Councilor White have emerged as the primary skeptics of replacing historic infrastructure (Stark Street Bridge) with modern functional designs .
• Pragmatic Supporters: Councilors Davidson and One typically support infrastructure modernizations and larger sponsorships for major community draws like the Arts Festival .

Key Officials & Positions

• Mike Weston (City Manager): Leading the 2026 budget strategy and managing the sensitive transition regarding fire district formation .
• Dakota Meyer (Associate Planner): The primary lead for the "Main Streets on Holly" code amendments and the Crunch Fitness conditional use .
• Travis Block (Public Works Director): Managing the RFP for the Beaver Creek Bridge and updating SDC methodologies .

Active Developers & Consultants

• Ethos Development / Time Equities: Engaging in ongoing, complex negotiations for the Confluence site; NATO has expressed interest in a hotel component there .
• MIG (Consultants): Advising the city on the "Main Streets on Holly" design standards and gateway overlay .

Analysis & Strategic Insights

• Industrial Pipeline Momentum: Demand for industrial infill remains steady, with new trucking and storage applications surfacing . However, the lack of immediate land availability outside of TRIP may push future development toward "Maker Space" and "Flex" uses in the Holly corridor .
• Entitlement Friction Signals: The city is in a "transition phase" where staff-level approvals (Type 2) are becoming the norm for housing, but the Planning Commission is actively looking for "loopholes" to maintain local design control . Developers should expect more rigid "clear and objective" standards for trees and sidewalks .
• Regulatory Tightening: Expect new "Gateway Overlay" rules to be adopted in mid-2026, which will mandate parking at the rear of buildings and require specific architectural elements like natural timber or brick to match the downtown aesthetic .
• Strategic Recommendations: Site positioning for mixed-use projects should prioritize "tuck-under" or rear parking to gain favor with planners . For fire service-intensive projects, expect a higher level of scrutiny as the city negotiates its long-term regional fire solution .
• Near-Term Watch Items: February 2026 Planning Commission introduction of the Holly Street code amendments . Final inspections for the Home Forward "York Terrace" apartments . RFP results for the Beaver Creek Bridge construction .