Executive Summary

Development Pipeline

Industrial Projects

Entitlement Risk

Approval Patterns

• Military Coordination Priority: Approvals for projects within Accident Potential Zones (APZ2) are strictly contingent on "affirmative" recommendation letters from JBSA-Randolph .
• Mixed-Use Hybridization: Industrial developers who include "Commercial/Service" frontage or ground-floor retail components see higher approval rates in high-traffic corridors .
• Phased Infrastructure Escrow: Council frequently approves sewer/septic waivers for industrial sites located more than 1,500–2,000 feet from existing lines, provided the developer enters an escrow agreement for future connection .

Denial Patterns

• Plan Inconsistency: Rezoning requests from "Predevelopment" to "GB2" (Industrial intensity) are routinely denied if the site is designated as "Regional Corridor" or "Complete Neighborhood" in the Comprehensive Plan, as these labels prioritize retail over logistics .
• PDD "Circumvention" Skepticism: While PDDs are common, the Planning & Zoning Commission has expressed increasing skepticism toward PDDs that remove commercial components originally promised during earlier approval stages .

Zoning Risk

• Industrial Hub Expansion: The city is actively amending its Future Land Use Map to expand "Industrial Hub" designations near Loop 1604 and IH-10 to leverage existing logistics clusters .
• Home Occupation Deregulation: Recent UDC amendments have removed local permit requirements for no-impact home-based businesses to comply with state law (HB 2464), potentially increasing neighborhood traffic .

Political Risk

• Mayoral Transition: The transition to Mayor Ralph Rodriguez in November 2025 has focused on uniting the city and transparency .
• Resign-to-Run Vacancies: Political stability is currently impacted by the "holdover" status of Councilmember Hayward (Place 6) and a runoff for the late Tim Brown’s seat (Place 7), creating potential swing-vote uncertainty during special elections .

Community Risk

• High-Density Opposition: Residents have successfully petitioned against R4 and R5 multifamily rezoning, citing "foreign developers" and existing infrastructure strain .
• Noise and Traffic Sensitivity: Industrial projects near Old Wiederstein Road and FM 1518 face heavy community scrutiny regarding truck routing and noise mitigation .

Procedural Risk

• Notice Compliance: All rezoning notice signs must now meet strictly enforced state dimensions (24" x 48") and be posted at least 10 days prior to hearings .
• Impact Fee Freeze: To avoid a 3-to-5-year state-mandated freeze on fee increases (SB 1883), Schertz moved to immediately adopt maximum assessable water and wastewater impact fees ($8,814 and $5,556 respectively) effective July 2025 .

Key Stakeholders

Council Voting Patterns

• Unanimous on Utilities: Council consistently votes 7-0 on wastewater infrastructure expansions and interlocal agreements with the Cibolo Creek Municipal Authority .
• Divided on Density: Voting splits often occur on tax rate increases and high-density residential projects that might further strain aging infrastructure .

Key Officials & Positions

• Scott Wayman (EDC Executive Director): A critical advocate for "speed to market" and industrial job creation .
• Brian James (Assistant City Manager): Frequently directs technical negotiations on wastewater capacity and regional infrastructure .
• Daisy Marquez (Planning Manager): Recently promoted; emphasizes strict adherence to Comprehensive Plan visions for specific focus areas .

Active Developers & Consultants

• Titan, Core 5, and IDS: Identified as the primary industrial operators currently active in the pipeline .
• Ashley Fairman (Killen Griffin & Fairman): Frequently represents the most significant PDD and industrial rezoning applications .
• Paul Lando (MTR Engineers): Active in large-scale residential-to-mixed-use rezoning along Lower Seguin Road .

Analysis & Strategic Insights

Pipeline Momentum vs. Entitlement Friction:

Logistics momentum is surging along the southern IH-10 corridor, but entitlement friction is intensifying. The City Council has signaled a clear intent to protect the "Regional Corridor" vision from pure industrial sprawl. Projects that fail to present a "superior development" package—defined by the city as enhanced landscaping (3-inch caliper trees), dedicated floodplain preservation, and masonry wall buffers—face high rejection rates at the P&Z level .

Probability of Approval Assessment:

• Warehouse/Logistics: High in designated "Industrial Hubs" ; Moderate-Low in "Regional Corridors" .
• Flex Industrial: High if following "Main Street Mixed Use" guidelines which encourage small business/residential hybrids .
• Truck Terminals: Moderate; requires strong justification for alleviating existing parking or traffic congestion .

Strategic Recommendations:

• Sewer Strategy: Given the 4-year wait for the South Plant expansion, developers should proactively propose decentralized on-site sewer facilities (OSSF) with ironclad escrow commitments to connect to future city lines .
• Stakeholder Engagement: Engagement with JBSA-Randolph is mandatory. A "neutral" letter is no longer sufficient; developers must secure an "affirmative" recommendation to satisfy Section 21.5.9 of the UDC .
• Signage Waivers: Following the Home Depot appeal, Council has signaled a preference for amending the UDC to accommodate "national chain" sign packages for buildings over 100,000 sq ft, rather than case-by-case waivers .

Near-Term Watch Items:

• Wastewater Capacity Agreement: Expect a new capacity "rental" agreement with Green Valley SUD in mid-2026 to bridge the gap until the plant expansion .
• ETJ Land Use Election: Following the 107-5 vote in favor of land-use controls over annexation, watch for a new special overlay district ordinance regulating height, lighting, and density in the ETJ .