Executive Summary

Development Pipeline

Industrial Projects

> Additional projects are included in the Appendix below.

Entitlement Risk

Approval Patterns

• The Council prioritizes projects that align with "Guiding Principles" to ensure fiscal certainty and public safety cost recovery .
• There is a pattern of overriding Airport Land Use Commission (ALUC) determinations of "inconsistency" to allow transit-oriented residential and mixed-use development within noise contours .
• Streamlining efforts have successfully expedited approximately a dozen smaller projects and single-family additions over two years .

Denial Patterns

• Projects face friction when they conflict with historical height limits; for instance, the Tanforan project was initially flagged for inconsistency by the ALUC due to noise levels .
• The Planning Commission has shown a specific aversion to signage that is not "discreet," such as rejecting the word "dispensary" on cannabis storefronts, although the Council later overturned this .

Zoning Risk

• Ordinance 1284: This 1977 growth control ordinance is the primary risk factor, as it forces projects exceeding certain height or density limits to a public vote .
• MTC TOC Policy: New regional policies from the Metropolitan Transportation Commission require San Bruno to adopt parking maximums and minimum densities to remain eligible for transportation grants, creating potential conflict with local parking preferences .

Political Risk

• School Funding: A significant bloc of the community and some council members demand that a specific portion of development agreement (DA) funds be legally committed to school districts .
• Labor Tension: Protracted negotiations with first responders (Police and Fire) have led to public criticism of the City Manager and concerns over service capacity during growth phases .

Community Risk

• Infrastructure Impact: Residents have expressed organized concern over construction-related air and noise pollution, particularly regarding the scale of the Tanforan project .
• View Protections: While San Bruno lacks a formal view protection ordinance, neighbors frequently oppose multi-story additions that block Bay views .

Procedural Risk

• Ballot Measure Sequencing: The city is coordinating a multi-year strategy for ballot measures in 2026 and 2028 to update the General Plan and Ordinance 1284 .
• Environmental Review: The Tanforan project EIR identified "significant and unavoidable" impacts regarding construction health risks and nighttime noise, which may invite litigation .

Key Stakeholders

Council Voting Patterns

• Rico Medina (Mayor): Generally supports large-scale revitalization but emphasizes the need for developers to pay their "fair share" and remains skeptical of rapid changes to Ordinance 1284 .
• Michael Salazar: A frequent skeptic of fiscal projections and large budget adjustments; often asks for detailed breakdowns of unassigned funds and pushes back on salary increases .
• Sandy Alvarez: Historically supportive of incentives for downtown merchants and pragmatic solutions to parking and signage issues .

Key Officials & Positions

• Alex McIntyre (City Manager): Leads labor negotiations and handles regional coordination; has faced criticism from labor groups regarding contract delays .
• Peter Gilly (Community Development Director): The primary driver behind the Land Use, Housing, and Economic Development Initiative and the strategy to update Ordinance 1284 .
• Matt Lee (Public Works Director): Focuses on "Clear Path" sidewalk repairs and the massive $22 million Pavement Management Program .

Active Developers & Consultants

• Alexandria Real Estate Equities: The dominant player in the industrial/life science pipeline via the Tanforan redevelopment .
• PlaceWorks: Recently selected as the lead consultant for the $2.8 million Land Use, Housing, and Economic Development Initiative .
• City Ventures: Active in multi-family townhome development, utilizing the CMFA BOLD program for public financing .

Analysis & Strategic Insights

Forward-Looking Assessment

• Industrial Momentum: The pipeline is heavily weighted toward Life Science/R&D conversion. Traditional warehouse and logistics development appears minimal in the current cycle, as the city prioritizes high-value "Innovation Center" uses to rebuild its tax base .
• Approval Probability: High for projects that follow the "Guiding Principles" adopted for Tanforan, provided they do not require immediate height limit changes that trigger Ordinance 1284 .
• Regulatory Environment: Emerging regulatory "tightening" is expected around the MTC’s Transit-Oriented Communities (TOC) policy, specifically regarding parking maximums which may limit project viability for some developers .
• Strategic Recommendations:
• Site Positioning: Developers should focus on the "Transit Corridor Plan" areas where the city is proactively looking to increase density .
• Community Engagement: Prioritize early dialogue with the school district; despite the council’s refusal to mandate school funding in guiding principles, it remains a high-friction political issue .
• Watch Items: Monitor the development of the 2026 ballot measure language, as it will determine the feasibility of vertical industrial/flex projects for the next decade .