Executive Summary

Development Pipeline

Industrial & Major Employment Projects

Entitlement Risk

Approval Patterns

• Standardized Master Planning: The city consistently approves detailed development plans for institutional campuses like Clackamas Community College when they align with long-term infrastructure goals .
• Mandate Compliance: Approval is nearly automatic for code amendments required by state bills (e.g., HB 2658), such as exempting projects under $150,000 from public frontage improvements .

Denial Patterns

• Unpermitted Tree Topping: There is a zero-tolerance pattern for "topping" or "butchering" street trees without permits, leading to immediate code enforcement citations and calls for increased financial penalties .
• Substantial Drop-off in Qualifications: The Commission prefers readvertising vacancies over appointing under-prepared candidates for quasi-judicial roles like the Planning Commission .

Zoning Risk

• SDC Methodology Shifts: The city is moving toward "scaling" SDCs based on square footage for residential units, which will likely rebalance the fee burden between high-density and low-density developments .
• Urban Renewal Rezonings: Institutional properties are being actively rezoned to R3.5 (Medium Density Residential) to facilitate the sale of surplus city land for affordable housing .

Political Risk

• State Overreach vs. Local Control: High risk exists around proposed state housing bills (HB 4037) that could exempt certain permits from local plan reviews or restrict public notice for "needed housing" .
• Spending Priorities: A divided Commission (3-2 vote) recently removed external DEI task force funding from consultant contracts, signaling a preference for community-facing events over new committees .

Community Risk

• Main Street Economic Sensitivity: Downtown business owners are actively lobbying for a formal policy to limit Main Street closures for special events, citing direct economic harm from administrative approvals .
• Social/Labor Friction: Sustained public testimony regarding federal immigration enforcement has forced the city and school district to adopt formal sanctuary/support resolutions to mitigate community fear .

Procedural Risk

• Quiet Zone Funding Gaps: The Downtown Quiet Zone project faces a $1.69 million funding gap, which may necessitate delaying other transportation projects or seeking additional Urban Renewal funds .
• ADA Transition Backlog: With an 89-year projected timeline for full city-wide ramp compliance at current funding levels, developers may face increased pressure to provide "above and beyond" accessibility .

Key Stakeholders

Council Voting Patterns

• Commissioner Adam Marl: Recently elected Chair of the Urban Renewal Commission; focuses on fiscal impact and skeptical of "soft" spending on external task forces .
• Commissioner Rocky Smith: Highly critical of state mandates; focuses heavily on architectural details and historic accuracy during land-use reviews .
• Commissioner Mike Mitchell: Generally supportive of economic growth but vocal about high consultant fees and ensuring "hammer" protections for city-deferred fees .

Key Officials & Positions

• Kelly Hart (Community Development Director): Actively tracking 49 state bills to advocate for Oregon City’s infrastructure funding and local control .
• Seth Henderson (Planning Commissioner): Newly appointed; brings engineering and development background to the commission, emphasizing "clear and objective" code interpretation .
• Dana Webb (Public Works Director): Leading complex jurisdictional transfers and negotiating with ODOT for critical corridor improvements at Highway 213 .

Active Developers & Consultants

• Level Development Northwest: Primary lead on the former County Courthouse redevelopment .
• Confederated Tribes of Grand Ronde: Major stakeholder in the Tamada Village project and historic site preservation .
• FCS (Consultants): Drafting the new tiered SDC and deferral methodologies .

Analysis & Strategic Insights

Industrial Pipeline Momentum vs. Entitlement Friction

Momentum is shifting toward Urban Renewal redevelopment over traditional industrial expansion. While the 10th and 12th Main Street sites are moving toward solicitation, friction remains regarding driveway access and the technical variances required by arterial road classifications .

Probability of Approval

• Adaptive Reuse & Infill: High. The city is actively amending codes to lower barriers for small-scale projects and accessory units .
• Institutional Campus Expansion: High. Projects like CCC's athletic complex are finding success through "Detailed Development Plans" even when requiring height adjustments .
• Commercial Special Events: Moderate. Expect tightening permitting rules as businesses demand less frequent Main Street closures .

Emerging Regulatory Trends

• SDC Deferral Program: Expect a new program allowing SDC payments to be deferred until the Certificate of Occupancy, intended to give Oregon City a "competitive advantage" for new permits .
• Parking Limit Expansion: The Commission has approved a shift from 2-hour to 3-hour parking in the downtown core to support "self-care" and service-based retail .

Near-term Watch Items

• SDC Tiering Adoption: Final methodology for square-footage-based fees is expected in the coming months .
• Main Street Closure Policy: A future work session will define objective criteria for economic impact assessments during event permitting .
• Quiet Zone Funding: Decision on covering the $1.69M gap through transportation dollars or UR funds will impact the early 2027 construction target .