Executive Summary
Millbrae is aggressively pivoting from traditional industrial uses to life science, biotech, and transit-oriented development . Conventional warehouse and distribution uses face high entitlement risk through strict enforcement of non-conforming use "abandonment" clauses, specifically a 90-day discontinuance rule . The regulatory environment is tightening around parking and density to meet state Transit-Oriented Communities (TOC) standards .
Development Pipeline
Industrial & Life Science Projects
| Project | Applicant | Key Stakeholders | Size | Current Stage | Key Issues |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 370 Adrian Road | Edward Quan | JC Kitchen (Proposed Tenant) | N/A | Denied | Abandonment of non-conforming warehouse use |
| Alexandria (Avia Labs) | Alexandria Real Estate | ICON Therapeutics (Tenant) | 6-Story | Completed | Milbrae’s first corporate HQ |
| Longfellow (Avia Labs) | Longfellow | N/A | 315,000 SF | Completed | Core & shell CO issued; awaiting tenant |
| SFPUC Milbrae Campus | SFPUC | Outdoor Supply Hardware (OSH) | 17 Acres | Planning | Industrial "South Shop" workshops vs. Commercial zoning |
| Westfield Cargo | SFO | SFO Airport | N/A | Ongoing | Replacing 1950s/60s warehouse facilities |
| ... (Full table in report) |
Entitlement Risk
Approval Patterns
- Biotech Momentum: Clear preference for life science and laboratory projects, with major facilities like Alexandria and Longfellow receiving certificates of occupancy recently .
- Incentivized Density: The Council is adopting local density bonus programs that exceed state requirements to provide "guaranteed pathways" for developers in transit corridors .
Denial Patterns
- Warehouse Abandonment: Strict enforcement of the 90-day "discontinuance" rule for non-conforming industrial uses; the city utilizes zero water usage records as primary evidence of abandonment .
- Zoning Misalignment: Projects proposing industrial-style workshops in "Highway Commercial" zones, such as the SFPUC "South Shop" proposal, face heavy Council scrutiny for inconsistent land use .
Zoning Risk
- TOC Transitions: The city received a $300,000 MTC grant to update zoning codes to eliminate parking minimums and increase density in Transit-Oriented Community (TOC) areas .
- Industrial Erosion: Industrial zones (e.g., Adrian Road) have been historically rezoned to Retail Commercial, creating high risk for existing operators who lose their non-conforming status .
Political Risk
- Economic Diversification: The Council's top priority is expanding the tax base through "high-value" corporate tenants like ICON Therapeutics to offset budget deficits .
- Mayoral Stability: Public tension exists regarding the adherence to mayoral rotation protocols, which could influence future leadership consistency .
Community Risk
- Small Business Displacement: Strong community sentiment exists against displacing existing retail (e.g., OSH, KFC) for institutional industrial uses .
- Unleashed Dogs & Encampments: Significant organized neighborhood activity surrounding park usage and the enforcement of the new public encampment ordinance .
Procedural Risk
- Quasi-Judicial Determinations: Land use abandonment hearings are handled in a quasi-judicial capacity by the Planning Commission, making them vulnerable to appeals based on "intent to abandon" interpretations .
- Staff Vacancies: The planning department is currently navigating multiple staff vacancies, relying on contract planners from firms like CSG and Urban Planning Partners .
Key Stakeholders
Council Voting Patterns
- Unanimous Economic Focus: The current Council (Fong, Holliver, Raldi, Riley, Nuin) consistently votes 5-0 on items that advance life science development and budget stabilization .
- Pro-Enforcement: Strong consensus on strict municipal code enforcement regarding non-conforming uses and public safety .
Key Officials & Positions
- Mayor Ruben Holliver: Focuses on infrastructure investment and balanced park growth; cautious of cost overruns .
- Vice Mayor Steven Raldi: Advocate for "back to basics" infrastructure and pedestrian safety; very responsive to constituent correspondence .
- Andy Mogensen (Community Development Director): Directs the shift toward high-density transit-oriented projects and oversees non-conforming use determinations .
Active Developers & Consultants
- Alexandria Real Estate / Longfellow: Dominant players in the city’s life science transformation .
- Kimley-Horn: Consulting on the city’s new parking management program implementation .
- Perkins Eastman: Recently awarded the contract for the $1.2M Multimodal Integrated Transit Station Concept Plan .
Analysis & Strategic Insights
Forward-Looking Assessment
- Industrial Displacement: The "Industrial" era of Millbrae is effectively over. The city is using administrative mechanisms (business license delays, water meter audits) to extinguish old-line industrial uses in the Station Area .
- Warehouse Probability: New warehouse or logistics projects have a near-zero probability of approval unless they are repositioned as "Life Science Support" or specialized R&D .
- TOC Upside: Significant opportunities exist for developers willing to consolidate small parcels in the Station Area, supported by upcoming zoning changes that will mandate higher densities and lower parking ratios .
- Watch Items:
- TOC Zoning Amendments: Finalization of minimum residential/commercial density increases .
- SFPUC vs. Millbrae: Ongoing legal and zoning friction over the proposed 17-acre operational center .
- Parking Management Rollout: Implementation of the first city-wide paid parking and kiosk system .
- Superintendent Transition: Impact of upcoming leadership changes in the school district on developer fee negotiations .