Executive Summary

Development Pipeline

Industrial Projects

Entitlement Risk

Approval Patterns

• High Multiplier Retention: Projects involving existing local firms expanding their footprint (e.g., Midstates) receive near-unanimous support for Chapter 100 incentives due to job retention and a "net gain" in tax revenue .
• Mixed-Use Destination Anchors: Large-scale developments anchored by "blue ribbon" tenants like Costco are viewed as essential for regional economic competition, often overcoming opposition to included multifamily components .

Denial Patterns

• Rental-Heavy Infill: The Council has demonstrated a pattern of denying high-density rental projects that "punch into" established single-family neighborhoods, citing a mismatch with existing character .
• Utility Arbitrage Projects: Industrial projects that primarily benefit utilities (e.g., Evergy) rather than end-users face high friction if they require public incentives .

Zoning Risk

• Zoning Reform (Administrative Power): Significant UDO amendments are underway to shift "minor modifications" and PDP extensions to staff-level administrative approval, reducing public hearing requirements for small-scale residential .
• PMIX Flexibility: The city is increasingly using Planned Mixed-Use (PMIX) rezoning to allow flexibility between commercial and high-density residential, though this faces resident pushback .

Political Risk

• Election Year Agenda Management: City leadership is actively pushing to resolve major development decisions by year-end 2025 to keep early 2026 agendas light during the municipal election cycle .
• Lobbying Focus: The city is expanding its state lobbying contract to include federal advocacy, specifically targeting I-470 infrastructure funding .

Community Risk

• Solid Waste Backlash: Organized resident opposition to a single-hauler trash model was so significant that the Council opted to move the decision to a November 2026 advisory vote .
• Technical Skepticism: Neighbors are increasingly using technical arguments regarding "Routine Activities Theory" and environmental runoff to oppose projects like carnivals and high-density developments .

Procedural Risk

• Sewer Capacity Triggers: Major new developments (e.g., East Village) now face occupancy permit restrictions tied specifically to the completion of downstream sanitary sewer improvements .
• Public Comment Scrutiny: Contentious meetings have led to a Rules Committee review of public comment procedures to mitigate "character assassination" against officials .

Key Stakeholders

Council Voting Patterns

• Pro-Development Team: Mayor Baird and Council Member Shields are consistent supporters of large-scale mixed-use and industrial expansions that provide quantifiable economic output .
• The Skeptical Bloc: Council Members Rader, Hodes, and Prior frequently vote against projects they perceive as over-densified or incompatible with "upscale" neighborhood standards .

Key Officials & Positions

• David Bushek (GILMORE BELL): Transitioned from Chief Counsel to outside counsel; remains the primary architect of complex TIF and Chapter 100 agreements .
• Michael Park (Director of Public Works): Heavily focused on the transition from reactive to proactive maintenance via the proposed 2026 Stormwater Sales Tax .
• Chief Travis Forbes (Police): Increasingly influential in development via "CPTED" (Crime Prevention Through Environmental Design) and safety-based carnival regulations .

Active Developers & Consultants

• Drake Development (Matt Pennington): Remains the dominant force in high-profile mixed-use/TIF projects .
• Engineering Solutions (Matt Sllish): The lead engineering consultant for most industrial and commercial PDP applications currently in the pipeline .
• Sunflower Development Group (Mark Moberly): Focused on historic preservation and TIF-funded rehabilitation of the Longview structures .

Analysis & Strategic Insights

Industrial Pipeline Momentum vs. Entitlement Friction

Industrial momentum is strong for traditional warehousing and distribution, but "new-tech" industrial (like BESS) faces a steep entitlement climb. The city is essentially "full" on standard utility capacity in some corridors, meaning developers must now fund off-site sewer and road improvements to gain approval .

Probability of Approval

• Warehousing/Logistics: High, if replacing blight or expanding a known local firm .
• Multifamily/Apartments: Moderate to Low; approval is increasingly contingent on being a secondary component to a major retail anchor like Costco .
• Battery Storage/BESS: Low; currently facing extreme safety and "public benefit" scrutiny .

Strategic Recommendations

• Avoid "Blight" Dependency: Given recent public criticism, developers should focus on the "economic multiplier" and job creation figures rather than just blight findings to justify incentives .
• Administrative "Safe Harbors": Utilize the new UDO provisions for administrative approval of minor changes to avoid the political friction of full Planning Commission hearings .
• Early Utility Vetting: Proactively engage with Water Utilities regarding "Big Creek" capacity issues, as this is now a hard trigger for occupancy .

Near-Term Watch Items

• August 2026 Election: Quarter-cent sales tax for stormwater management .
• November 2026 Advisory Vote: Residential citywide solid waste collection .
• I-470 Funding: Federal lobbying outcomes for added lanes and interchange improvements .