Executive Summary

Development Pipeline

Industrial & Major Commercial Projects

> Additional projects are included in the Appendix below.

Entitlement Risk

Approval Patterns

• Aesthetic Material Negotiation: The Design Review Board (DRB) consistently pushes for "higher quality" materials in commercial districts, often approving engineered wood (LP Smart Side) as a compromise over prohibited vinyl .
• Hardship Exceptions for Existing Structures: Projects involving the renovation of existing buildings frequently receive waivers for glazing percentages and material standards when strict adherence exceeds project budgets .

Denial Patterns

• Vicinity Character and Lack of Hardship: Industrial-adjacent elements like high-security fencing are scrutinized; an 8-foot fence variance was recently denied for failing to demonstrate hardship and potentially altering neighborhood character .
• Proximity to Residential: Development on city-owned parkland (e.g., Carlisle Park) faces immediate rejection patterns if it threatens the "city in a park" identity or involves unstable geological conditions .

Zoning Risk

• Comprehensive Plan Stagnation: The five-year review of the Comprehensive Plan is currently on the "back burner" . There is significant internal debate over removing "regional destination" goals in favor of "community asset" definitions .
• Overlay District Failures: A proposed "Fort Thomas Historic Overlay District" recently failed to pass, though individual historic districts like Alexander Circle remain under strict Memorandum of Agreement (MOA) standards .

Political Risk

• Administrative Friction: Significant tension exists between Council and the City Administrator regarding financial oversight, highlighted by Council's motion to issue RFPs for a forensic audit into "sloppy bookkeeping" .
• Transition of Power: The unanimous appointment of Interim Mayor Andy Ellison has shifted the political focus toward fiscal transparency and auditing past "One Highland" developer finance documents .

Community Risk

• Anti-Intensification Sentiment: Residents have expressed strong opposition to increased density in business districts, citing 2016 survey data against multi-family housing expansion .
• Preservation Advocacy: Neighborhood coalitions are highly active in monitoring the Design Review Board to ensure mandatory Secretary of the Interior Standards are applied to any modifications in historic areas .

Procedural Risk

• Audit and Litigation Exposure: A 2023-2024 audit resulted in a "qualified opinion" due to $322,000 in unaccounted cash, prompting a 6-week forensic audit that could delay new large-scale development agreements .
• Unfunded Mandates & Pension Spiking: The city recently paid $277,000 for "pension spiking" liabilities, leading to increased scrutiny of all department-level spending and payroll .

Key Stakeholders

Council Voting Patterns

• Transparency Bloc: Council members Strange, Pendry, and Blau have consistently voted for increased oversight, including the forensic audit and HR consultant .
• Split on Fiscal Commitments: Council recently split 3-2 on authorizing $250,000 for ballfield lights, with dissenters citing the lack of a signed lease agreement before funds were committed .

Key Officials & Positions

• Mayor Andy Ellison: Focuses on fiscal responsibility, transparency, and resolving audit "sloppiness" .
• Matt Kramer (City Administrator): Faces scrutiny over unapproved pension payments and "relationship agreements" with other staff .
• Brandon Vulker (City Attorney): New counsel with 25 years of municipal experience, focused on reviewing IRB complexities and DRB procedures .

Active Developers & Consultants

• North American Properties: Primary developer for "One Highland"; recently refinanced debt with city authorization .
• Wes Cunningham: On-call historic preservation consultant; provides critical technical reports that the DRB uses to approve or deny additions .
• The Schneider Group: Active in commercial office renovation and adaptive reuse along Alexandria Pike .

Analysis & Strategic Insights

• Industrial Momentum: There is no momentum for traditional industrial development in Fort Thomas. The city’s geography and political will are firmly aligned with residential and small-scale commercial "Inverness" and "Midway" business district improvements .
• Logistics/Warehouse Probability: The probability of approval for large-scale warehouse or logistics projects is near zero. The city is focused on "road diets" to slow traffic and reduce truck accessibility on Grand Avenue .
• Regulatory Environment: Expect a tightening of Design Review Board (DRB) rules. There is a consensus that "black-and-white" rules are needed to replace current discretionary practices which have led to inconsistent approvals .
• Strategic Recommendations:
• Site Positioning: Focus on adaptive reuse of existing commercial assets. New construction on greenfield sites (like Carlisle Park) faces insurmountable community and geological risk .
• Stakeholder Engagement: Engage the newly appointed Mayor and Finance Director early regarding any project involving city-owned land or IRBs, as financial transparency is currently the highest priority .
• Near-Term Watch Items:
• Forensic Audit Results: Expected in mid-2026; results will likely dictate future internal controls for all development-related financial agreements .
• Comprehensive Plan Joint Meeting: A future meeting between Council and the Planning Commission will determine if residential density goals in business districts will be officially stripped .