Executive Summary

Development Pipeline

Industrial Projects

Entitlement Risk

Approval Patterns

• Infrastructure-Linked Approvals: The city consistently approves industrial and utility projects that include significant infrastructure upgrades, such as the Pump Station 27 emergency procurement to support large-scale housing .
• Tax-Base Prioritization: Projects that return non-profit or blighted properties to the tax rolls receive unanimous support, often qualifying for Urban Renewal Agency (URA) grants .
• Public-Private Cooperation: Development agreements requiring a minimum build-out (e.g., 150 homes) to offset public infrastructure costs are standard for large-scale projects .

Denial Patterns

• Passive Land Uses: There is a new, rigid pattern of denying or halting self-storage developments to protect commercial and industrial lands for job-creating manufacturing .
• Out-of-Scale Corridor Projects: Facilities that do not contribute to an "active streetscape" are being systematically restricted from the Highway 101, Newmark, and Empire corridors .

Zoning Risk

• Industrial Deficit: The 2025 Economic Opportunities Analysis (EOA) confirmed a 39-acre deficit in industrial land, signaling future rezoning or UGB expansion needs .
• Self-Storage Exclusion Zones: Adoption of Resolution 25-29 and subsequent amendments have created broad exclusion zones for storage units along major arterials and waterfront districts .
• Code Modernization: A comprehensive "Title 17 cleanup" has streamlined procedures but also allows for new restrictions on "unattractive" business types in core districts .

Political Risk

• "Jobs and Housing" Mandate: The council is aligned on a vision that prioritizes residential infill and industrial logistics over services deemed to have low employment density .
• Port-City Friction: While collaboration is improving, segments of the council and the public remain skeptical of speculative Port projects like the PCIP, fearing they may bias future land-use decisions .

Community Risk

• Environmental Justice/Estuary Concerns: Organized opposition exists regarding deep draft channel modifications, citing potential impacts on the Dungeness crab habitat and tribal cultural resources .
• Safety Advocacy: Strong community pressure regarding Highway 101 safety has successfully forced the city to appeal ODOT speed limit decisions, indicating a public that influences arterial design .

Procedural Risk

• RPS Complexity: The Regional Problem Solving (RPS) process for UGB expansion is a multi-year, multi-phase commitment (3-year target) heavily dependent on state grant funding .
• Emergency Procurement Use: The city has shown a willingness to bypass traditional bidding via emergency designations to prevent private development stalls .

Key Stakeholders

Council Voting Patterns

• Mayor Joe Benetti: A strong advocate for economic diversification; frequently votes against storage units to protect "highest and best use" of land .
• Councillor Troy Cribbins: Generally supports industrial growth and state-aligned economic goals but favors market-driven solutions .
• Councillor Stephanie Kilmer: Pushes for community-minded design and has been a primary catalyst for the storage moratorium .

Key Officials & Positions

• Chelsea Schnabel (Community Development Director): Architect of the comprehensive code cleanup; focused on aligning land use with economic priorities .
• Jennifer Wersing (Public Works Director): Manages critical infrastructure dependencies for industrial and residential pipelines .
• Nicole Rutherford (City Manager): Directs strategic positioning and manages intergovernmental partnerships with the Port and State .

Active Developers & Consultants

• Affordable Housing Oregon / Compass Communities: Leading large-scale workforce housing projects in partnership with the city .
• Waste Connections: Actively redeveloping and modernizing its southern transfer station .
• AKS Engineering and Forestry: Key consultant for the Eastside residential/industrial feasibility study .

Analysis & Strategic Insights

Industrial Pipeline Momentum vs. Entitlement Friction

The pipeline for large-scale manufacturing and logistics is gaining momentum, supported by a 20-year forecast of 1,500 new jobs . However, this is met with significant entitlement friction for lower-tier industrial uses. Developers of "passive" industrial sites, specifically self-storage, face an almost 100% entitlement risk in prime transit corridors due to new council-mandated exclusion zones .

Probability of Approval

• High: Logistics or manufacturing projects at Terminal One or IC zones that demonstrate high property tax value and job creation .
• Moderate: Mixed-use industrial near the waterfront, provided they incorporate public access easements .
• Low: Self-storage or warehouse projects along Highway 101, Newmark Avenue, or in the Empire Area Blueprint zone .

Emerging Regulatory Trends

• UGB Expansion: The three-year RPS process will likely lead to the inclusion of Barview and Charleston in the UGB, potentially opening new "employment lands" .
• Infrastructure SDCs: There is an active council discussion regarding the potential reimplementation of System Development Charges (SDCs) to fund the $40M–$60M sewer infrastructure needs .

Strategic Recommendations

• Site Positioning: Target IC (Industrial Commercial) zones that are not directly on the Highway 101 or Newmark corridors to avoid current political sensitivity regarding "front door" aesthetics .
• Stakeholder Engagement: Early coordination with the Port of Coos Bay is essential, as the city increasingly relies on Port-owned land for both industrial expansion and workforce housing feasibility .
• Watch Items: Monitor the ODOT Speed Zone Review Panel outcomes and upcoming 2026 housing-focused code amendments, which may further shift industrial land supply toward residential uses .