Executive Summary

Development Pipeline

Industrial & Commercial-Adjacent Projects

> Additional projects are included in the Appendix below.

Entitlement Risk

Approval Patterns

• The Council demonstrates a "business-friendly but strict" stance, approving operational modifications for major retailers provided they accept "aggressive" monitoring and reporting requirements.
• Approvals often include negotiated conditions for infrastructure, such as restricted delivery truck access to specific streets (e.g., Salomar Avenue) to protect residential buffers.

Denial Patterns

• Projects that fail to address historical non-compliance or fail to provide objective evidence for ruled-out alternate sites face significant friction, particularly regarding wireless and industrial-adjacent uses. ,
• Proximity to low-density residential zones (within 200 feet) triggers exhaustive siting exercises and potential rejection if alternate industrial-zoned sites are available.

Zoning Risk

• Significant risk exists for the conversion of employment lands to housing; the city is actively exploring higher-density upzoning in commercial/industrial corridors like East Campbell Avenue and Hamilton Avenue. , ,
• New interim ordinances for "starter home" projects have expanded ministerial approval pathways city-wide, potentially encroaching on traditional light industrial or flex-office zones. ,

Political Risk

• Fiscal instability caused by ongoing Measure K litigation is forcing the city into "tactical" budgeting, which may prioritize projects that generate immediate sales tax or utilize state grants over long-term industrial infrastructure. ,
• The Council is divided on the level of "ambition" for climate action, with some members concerned about the fiscal burden of 100% electrification on property owners.

Community Risk

• Organized neighborhood opposition is highly effective in Campbell, specifically focusing on truck traffic, forklift safety, and "chaos" in parking lots adjacent to residential streets.
• Community members proactively monitor "unpermitted outdoor storage" and use code enforcement as a primary tool to trigger permit revocation hearings.

Procedural Risk

• Extended timelines for comprehensive traffic and multimodal studies (stretching to 2027/2028) may delay large-scale industrial or distribution project approvals until data is finalized. ,
• The city is increasingly using "proactive monitoring" as an enforcement tool, requiring developers to submit photographic proof of compliance.

Key Stakeholders

Council Voting Patterns

• Sergio Lopez (Mayor): Consistently supports a "pragmatic but ambitious" approach to development, favoring housing-intensive solutions to support downtown vibrancy. ,
• Hines: Often acts as a swing vote, emphasizing property rights and fiscal responsibility while expressing skepticism toward payments to neighboring jurisdictions (San Jose). ,
• Furtado (Vice Mayor): Frequently raises concerns about traffic thoroughfares and the "unresponsive" nature of current infrastructure. ,

Key Officials & Positions

• Robbie Eastwood (Community Development Director): Central figure in zoning shifts and the "ADU Express" process; lead on implementing state housing mandates.
• Nathan Donato-Weinstein (Economic Development Manager): Focused on identity-building for the East Campbell Avenue corridor and attracting "catalyst" redevelopments.
• Amy Olay (Interim Public Works Director): Manages the Hamilton Avenue rehabilitation and John D. Morgan Park improvements.

Active Developers & Consultants

• Scott a Mummer Consulting: Representing major retail-industrial operators (Home Depot).
• HMH Engineers: Lead consultant for the East Campbell Avenue Plan Line project.
• Elta Planning and Design: Developing the city’s Multimodal Transportation Plan. ,

Analysis & Strategic Insights

Industrial Pipeline Momentum vs. Entitlement Friction

The momentum in Campbell is overwhelmingly residential. Industrial operators should expect "conversion pressure" as the city targets catalyst sites currently used for office or light industrial use for redevelopment into 6-to-8-story housing projects. Entitlement friction is highest for projects involving logistics and truck movements, as the council has adopted a "new tool" of proactive, weekly site inspections for noise and storage compliance. ,

Probability of Approval

• Warehouse/Logistics: Low probability for new standalone facilities due to "siting preference" for city-owned or industrial-only lands, which are being increasingly eyed for residential overlays.
• Flex Industrial: Moderate probability, provided the project includes "ground floor activation" or serves as a "third space" plaza, as recommended by recent ULI panels.

Emerging Regulatory Trends

The city is simplifying ADU categories and exploring 100% park fee waivers for affordable housing, signaling a willingness to trade developer fees for housing production. However, industrial-adjacent projects should watch for the "Rental Dispute and Fact-Finding Committee" revival, which may increase regulatory oversight for commercial/industrial landlords. ,

Strategic Recommendations

• Site Positioning: Avoid sites within 200 feet of low-density residential zones to bypass the most restrictive "Taylor findings" and siting preference hurdles.
• Stakeholder Engagement: Proactively engage neighborhood associations (e.g., Campbell Village) with specific "truck-free" route guarantees and noise mitigation tech to avoid "aggressive" monitoring conditions.
• Entitlement Sequencing: Align project timelines with the 22-month Hamilton Avenue Public Improvement Plan to ensure proposed designs do not conflict with emerging multimodal standards.

Near-Term Watch Items

• ULI Final Report (Q4 2025): Detailed recommendations for the East Campbell Avenue corridor.
• Permanent Omnibus Ordinance: Staff is currently drafting permanent standards for starter homes and subdivisions.
• Hamilton Avenue Bidding (Q3 2025): Finalization of resurfacing and bike lane configurations.